📊 Core Data Snapshot
Mo Ferroalloy (60%)
Upward momentum fading since Jun 4
Mo Concentrate 45-50%
Mine supply still tight
European Mo Fe
Global price reference
316L/2B Yongjin
Cost support vs downstream resistance
304 Cold Rolled (民营毛基)
Futures跌破 key level, poor trades
Electrolytic Ni #1
Indonesia ore tightening + restocking
High-Ni Pig Iron 10-15%
Qingshan Steel Network
High-Cr Fe (出厂价)
HBIS Jun tender: ¥8,950 (flat, -300t)
316L-304 Price Spread
316L ¥30,450 - 304 ¥14,650 = ¥15,800. Extreme substitution pressure. Either 316L corrects down or 304 rises. Given current 304 weakness, 316L correction is more probable.
🔴 Molybdenum: High震荡, Momentum Fading
Molybdenum ferroalloy traded at ¥317,000-323,000/ton through early June, with the key signal being that suppliers stopped pushing price increases from June 4 onward. The earlier post-holiday rally has exhausted its upward momentum as downstream buyers resist at the ¥320,000+ level.
Mo concentrate 45-50% rose ¥120/tonne unit week-on-week to ¥5,100-5,130, still reflecting tight mine supply. European molybdenum ferroalloy at $71.45-71.55/kg Mo provides a moderating global reference.
Key observation: The combination of mine supply tightness (supporting the floor) and downstream resistance (capping the ceiling) has created a ¥315K-¥325K oscillation range. Both sides have strong arguments — miners maintain high cost + tight supply, while buyers face thin stainless steel margins and can't absorb ¥320K+ Mo costs.
🟠 316L Stainless Steel: Cost Conduction Under Threat
TISCO held 316L flat across all product lines on June 5 — cold coil at ¥33,800, hot coil at ¥32,300, and plate at ¥33,200. This is the second consecutive flat session. Yongjin 316L/2B stands at ¥30,450. Qingshan 316L bar (Wuxi) at ¥29,600 and Dainan at ¥29,700.
The implication is significant: costs rise (molybdenum), but finished product prices do not follow. This is the textbook signal of cost transmission break. If TISCO keeps prices flat in the June 9-10 announcement cycle, the break is confirmed.
TISCO Price Status (June 5)
| Product | Price (¥/ton) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 316L Cold Coil | 33,800 | Flat (2nd session) |
| 316L Hot Coil | 32,300 | Flat |
| 316L Medium Plate | 33,200 | Flat |
| 316L/2B Yongjin | 30,450 | Flat |
| 316L Bar (Wuxi) | 29,600 | Flat |
| 316L Bar (Dainan) | 29,700 | Flat |
🟢 304: Weak Demand, Soft Prices
304 cold rolled (private mills,毛基) traded at ¥14,600-14,650/ton with Wuxi prices at ¥14,700. Hot rolled at ¥14,400-14,500. The broader 300-series market in Wuxi saw broad declines on June 5 with futures breaking below key technical levels.
NDRC's June steel expectation index fell to 43.01% — below the 50% threshold for the first time, signaling bearish medium-term sentiment across the steel complex.
⚠️ Risk signal: Foshan 300-series inventory climbed to 188,700 tons (+1.99% WoW). Building inventory + falling futures + weak demand = the classic setup for a downward price move. Nickel's ¥1,100 gain provides the only buffer against further 304 declines.
⛏ Raw Material Roundup
- High-Ni pig iron 10-15%: ¥1,170/Ni (Qingshan Steel Network, flat)
- Electrolytic Ni #1 (Jinchuan): ¥140,600/ton, +¥1,100 on June 8
- High-Cr Fe (出厂): ¥8,350-8,450/50 base ton — flat
- HBIS June High-Cr tender: ¥8,950/50 base ton (flat, but -300 tons volume reduction)
- Xinyu Steel May Mo Fe tender: 66 tons — routine procurement
📋 Daily Change & Drivers
| Commodity | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Electrolytic Ni #1 | +¥1,100 | Indonesia ore tightening + restocking |
| Mo Fe 60% | Flat (high震荡) | Mine support vs downstream resistance |
| Mo Concentrate | +¥120/t.u WoW | Mine supply tight |
| 316L TISCO Full Line | Flat | Mill testing downstream tolerance |
| 304 Cold Rolled | Weak | Futures跌破, poor demand, inventory build |
| High-Cr Fe | Flat | HBIS tender -300t volume bearish |
🔗 Transmission Signals
✅ Cost Support (Active)
Mo supply inelastic + miner price discipline → floor holds. Ni +¥1,100 provides fresh cost support for both 304 and 316L. Mo Fe ¥317K supports 316L cost baseline.
⚠️ Loosening Signals
1) TISCO flat 2 consecutive sessions
2) Supplier push momentum fading since Jun 4
3) Downstream畏高 — buying only on need
4) 304 weak + futures down dragging sentiment
5) NDRC index <50% — bearish steel outlook
💡 72-Hour Outlook (Jun 9 → Jun 12)
Mo Fe: ¥315,000-325,000 Oil-range震荡
Miners defend the floor at ¥315K, buyers reject ¥325K+ ceiling. Both sides have strong positions. No catalyst for breakout. European Mo at $71-72 provides global anchor.
316L: ¥29,800-31,000 — Risk Skewed Down
Cost support from Mo/Ni remains, but TISCO flat pricing breaks the transmission chain. If Jun 9-10 mill announcements are flat again → transmission break confirmed → correction to ¥29,500 possible. Small hike (+¥200-500) would restore chain.
304: ¥14,400-14,800 — Narrow震荡
Ni +¥1,100 provides ¥200-300 cushion against demand weakness. NDRC index <50% caps upside. Foshan inventory +1.99% WoW adds downside risk.
Price Spread: ¥15,800 — Will Not Sustain
At ¥15,800/ton, substitution pressure is extreme. Buyers will shift from 316L to 304, 316Ti, or duplex grades wherever possible. Path of least resistance = 316L correction.
📌 Key Decision Window
June 9-10: New round of mill price announcements (TISCO, Baosteel, Qingshan)
→ If flat: confirms cost transmission break — Bearish for 316L, correction risk to ¥29,500
→ If small hike (+¥200-500): restores transmission chain — Bullish for 316L, potential rebound to ¥31,000+
🔖 Trading Advice: Hold existing inventory — do not sell into current weakness. Do not chase Mo Fe at ¥323K+ levels. Wait for mill price direction this week before committing to 316L positions.
Data Sources: Mysteel, China Molybdenum Network, Ferro-Alloy.com, Qingshan Steel Network, Nickel China, Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals, Tonghuashun Finance, NDRC Steel Expectation Index. Report date: June 9, 2026.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.